The outlook for COIN as macro uncertainty persists
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
You know what the stock market is doing broadly. And how BTC has trended lower, too.
But what about crypto equities — particularly the one many deem to be the purest of them all?
Coinbase’s stock price hovered around $165 at 1:30 pm ET — down 35.6% year to date. That’s worse than BTC and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which have decreased 13.6% and 15.2%, respectively, since the start of 2025.
Still, Cantor Fitzgerald kicked off its coverage of Coinbase by giving the crypto exchange’s shares a buy rating and a $245 price target.
“We expect we will soon see a ‘ChatGPT’ moment when it comes to Web3, and there is, in our view, no better way to play this dynamic than COIN given it has its hands in virtually every aspect of the crypto ecosystem,” Cantor Fitzgerald analysts wrote in a Tuesday note.
They highlight the “robust” user growth on Coinbase’s layer-2, Base. And the potential for Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue ($910 million in 2024) to grow as stablecoins have a chance to displace traditional cross-border payment rails.
“As such, we expect COIN’s business to be perceived less as a cyclical trading platform and more as a mission-critical infrastructure layer of the crypto economy,” the analysts wrote.
Morningstar analyst Michael Miller’s current fair value estimate for COIN remains at $170. He said in February he believed the company’s shares were “overvalued.” When I connected with Miller this morning, he said he now sees the stock as “slightly undervalued.”
“The obvious caveat here is that Coinbase’s business remains heavily exposed to cryptocurrency valuations,” Miller noted. “It has significant influence on their trading revenue and a direct impact on their custody and staking revenue, as those segments generate revenue based on assets held.”
As for other stocks tied to crypto, Strategy (MSTR) and Marathon Digital (MARA) are down 9.3% and 33.2% year to date. Galaxy Digital, which we noted yesterday could go public in the US next month, is down 48%.
Meanwhile, the share price of Robinhood, which saw crypto revenue of $358 million in Q4 2024, is right about where it was at the year’s start.
