Lower Volatility, High Returns: ARK Invest’s ‘Big Ideas 2025’ Report Strengthens BTC’s Digital Gold Case

According to ARK Invest’s newly released “Big Ideas 2025” report, Bitcoin’s volatility has declined to its lowest level on record.

The findings support Bitcoin’s growing market maturity, a thesis ARK backed with substantial BTC purchases.

🚨A NEW REPORT FROM ARK INVEST SHOWS BITCOIN VOLATILITY HAS FALLEN TO AN ALL-TIME LOW

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) April 16, 2025

ARK Invest: How Low is Bitcoin Volatility Now?

The findings show a drop in one-year rolling volatility since 2011, with the metric now settling below 50%, its lowest level recorded since tracking began in 2011.

And despite the decreased fluctuations, Bitcoin has gone to deliver a 122.2% return in 2024, outperforming gold, equities, and bonds. The report positions Bitcoin as a top-performing asset in absolute and risk-adjusted terms, with its long-term metrics signaling increased investor confidence.

What Do Sharpe/Sortino Ratios Say About Bitcoin Risk?

In 2024, Bitcoin registered a Sharpe ratio of 1.4 (measuring return per unit of risk) and a Sortino ratio of 4.1 (measuring return against downside risk).

While gold achieved a higher Sharpe ratio of 1.7, its annual return was limited to 26.6%. Equities recorded a 19.2% return with a 1.3 Sharpe ratio.

Source: X

Emerging markets and real estate returned 8% and 3.9%, respectively, while bonds posted a negative return of -3.1%. Over a five-year horizon, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reached 67.2%, significantly ahead of gold at 10.4% and equities at 11.7%. The data reflects Bitcoin’s superior return magnitude and efficiency performance relative to risk.

Related: Ark Invest Adds Heavily to Coinbase Position During Friday Market Sell-Off

Is ARK Invest Buying More Bitcoin Based on Its Report?

Aligning actions with their analysis, ARK Invest has increased its direct exposure to the asset. On March 13, 2025, ARK acquired 997 BTC worth approximately $80 million via Coinbase. Blockchain data from Arkham Intelligence shows the firm received two transactions, 498 BTC and 499 BTC, within a four-hour window.

Following this, ARK Invest purchased an additional $130.2 million worth of Bitcoin on April 3, and later bought another $11.3 million in BTC, signaling sustained accumulation. These transactions reflect growing institutional adoption through direct holdings and ETF exposure amid improving market stability.

What’s Bitcoin’s Current Market Status?

This bullish report and buying activity come as Bitcoin experiences a short-term pullback. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $83,547.45, down 2.21% over the last 24 hours. The market cap has decreased to $1.65 trillion, with daily trading volume dropping 6.65% to $27.52 billion. Price action shows an intraday peak above $85,500 on April 15, followed by a decline that pushed the asset below $83,000 before partial recovery.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Related: Analyst: Bitcoin Volatility Would Happen Sooner Rather Than Later

Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently at 19.85 million out of the maximum of 21 million. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) stands at $1.75 trillion, with a volume-to-market cap ratio of 1.61%, signaling moderate liquidity.

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