Food Secretary Predicts No Likely Surge in Food Inflation
No Significant Surge in Food Inflation Anticipated Due to Abundant Wheat and Rice Harvests, According to Food Secretary
Retail food inflation for April 2025 has dropped to 1.78%, the lowest level in 42 months, largely thanks to robust wheat and rice production that is expected to ensure a stable supply. Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra stated that the government’s strong procurement practices under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) scheme and adequate stock levels are projected to maintain price stability in the near future.
Chopra noted that the increase in edible oil prices is attributed to rises in global market prices and higher import duties. Despite the recent drop in food inflation to a multi-year low, he indicated that there is no expected increase in agricultural commodity prices over the coming months. “With a record yield of wheat and rice, I have no concerns regarding food inflation. We are looking forward to an even better harvest next year,” Chopra shared with the Financial Express. This positive outlook aligns with the current trend toward monetary policy easing. While lower prices could pose challenges for farmers, robust procurement at MSP levels will provide necessary support.
In April 2025, retail food inflation hit a 42-month low of 1.78%, with declines noted in the prices of vegetables, pulses, meat, fish, and spices as new crops entered the market. However, global price increases have driven the costs of mustard oil and refined oil up to 19.6% and 23.75%, respectively, due to the country relying on imports for roughly 58% of its edible oil needs. “The increase in edible oil prices stems from higher international prices and increased import duties,” Chopra explained.
Food Minister Prahalad Joshi reported, “We received pricing information from 522 centers and cities, indicating that overall food prices and inflation are at record lows.” Joshi made these comments while launching three new initiatives: the depot darpan portal and the digital platforms Anna Mitra and Anna Sahayata.
Meanwhile, during the 2025–26 rabi marketing season (April–June), wheat procurement by government entities, including the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and various state agencies, has surpassed 29.64 million tonnes (MT), the highest figure since the 2021-22 season. Currently, purchases are taking place only in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, with projected total wheat procurement likely to reach around 30 MT, according to Chopra. The government has set a procurement goal of 33 MT for the current season.
The amount of wheat acquired from farmers in major producing states so far exceeds last year’s figures by 11%. This procurement is complemented by total mandi arrivals of 38.88 MT nationwide, which also reflects purchases made by private entities. This situation bodes well for the government, as it will ensure ample grain availability for distribution through the public distribution system while enabling a market intervention program.
In comparison, wheat procurement totals were 26.6 MT in 2024–25 and 26.2 MT in the 2023–24 seasons.
Decline in Crude Import Bill Noted
Chopra addressed concerns regarding potential storage challenges as the new paddy procurement season approaches in October, noting that the issue of rice storage has been resolved since three to four months ago. “Starting from June, we will allocate rice for the Public Distribution System (PDS) until new stock begins to arrive a couple of months after the new procurement season starts on October 1,” he commented. Currently, the FCI has 38 MT of rice in its central pool, alongside an additional 22 MT that is expected from farmers, with a buffer requirement of 13.58 MT set for April 1.
