Sugar Production Projected to Recover in 2025-26: ISMA
India’s Sugar Production Set for Recovery in 2025-26
According to the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), India’s sugar production is anticipated to recover to over 29.5 million tonnes (MT) in the 2025-26 season, thanks to enhanced cane planting and favorable climatic conditions. Although the current season is projected to reach a five-year low, ample stocks and optimistic monsoon forecasts are poised to aid this recovery. The current sugar season kicked off with an opening stock of 8 MT on October 1, 2024, as reported by Reuters.
Industry experts are predicting a considerable resurgence in India’s sugar production during the 2025-26 (October-September) season, rebounding from a foreseen low of 29.5 MT in the preceding 2024-25 season. Deepak Ballani, the director general of ISMA, noted to FE that “The planting of sugarcane has seen improvement in major producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, bolstered by beneficial weather patterns and last year’s monsoon season, thereby paving the way for a timely initiation of the crushing season in October 2025.”
Prospects for Increased Sugar Supply
Ballani further indicated that the expected rise in sugar output for the 2025-26 season would guarantee an adequate supply for both domestic consumption and ethanol production. The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a southwest monsoon in 2025 that will be ‘above-normal,’ which is vital for sugarcane cultivation. Despite production being lower than anticipated in the current season, ISMA has projected that carryover stocks for the next season on October 1, 2025, will be around 5.2 to 5.3 MT, sufficient to meet domestic demand for the initial two months of the 2025-26 season. Currently, the sugar season started with an opening stock of 8 MT on October 1, 2024.
Crushing Season and Future Estimates
While the principal sugar crushing season has concluded, with 534 units across key agricultural regions closing, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are expected to recommence operations in June-July 2025 for a special season. ISMA plans to unveil preliminary estimates for sugar production in the 2025-26 season around July or August. These estimates will utilize satellite imagery and field surveys conducted in June to provide an early evaluation of sugarcane acreage and crop conditions, as Ballani explained.
For the 2024-25 season (October-September), mills’ sugar output, adjusted for ethanol diversion, is projected to decline by 7% year-on-year, hitting a five-year low of 29.5 MT, primarily due to a lower recovery rate stemming from insufficient monsoon rainfall in 2023 and the impact of red-rot diseases reported in Uttar Pradesh, which has diminished yields, according to trade and government sources. This figure does not include the 3.3 to 3.4 MT of sugar earmarked for ethanol production this season, as only 2.15 MT was diverted for biofuel in the 2023-24 season.
Domestic Demand and Export Regulations
The domestic demand for sweeteners is expected to reach around 28 MT this season, while sugar exports are estimated to hover around 0.9 MT. After having previously restricted sweetener exports in the 2023-24 season, the government sanctioned the export of one MT of sugar in January 2025 for the ongoing 2024-25 campaign, taking into account the availability of domestic supplies and the diversion for ethanol production.
Earlier this month, the government also approved a 4% increase in the fair and remunerative price (FRP) of sugarcane that mills are required to pay to farmers for the 2025-26 sugar season, setting it at Rs 355.
