Potential for Bountiful Kharif Crop Rises with Anticipated Higher-than-Average Monsoon in Crucial Rain-Dependent Areas
India’s Monsoon Forecast for 2025 Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall
The recent monsoon forecast for June-September 2025 in India indicates an expectation of above-normal rainfall levels. This forecast bodes well for kharif crop prospects, with a high likelihood of normal-to-excess rain at 90%. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates a 106% total rainfall, especially benefiting rain-fed regions crucial for crop production. This outlook boosts hopes for robust agriculture growth for the second consecutive year.
IMD Reiterates ‘Above Normal’ Monsoon Rainfall Forecast
On Tuesday, the IMD reaffirmed its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall for June-September 2025, with June potentially experiencing ‘excess’ rainfall. The forecast indicates a 90% chance of rains falling within the “normal-to-excess” range throughout the season. The IMD has slightly increased the expected rainfall to 106% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) from the previous estimate of 105%.
Regional Highlights and Impact on Agriculture Sector
The IMD’s forecast of above-normal rainfall of 106% in the “monsoon core zone” is particularly beneficial for key rain-fed regions such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and others. This is expected to enhance kharif crop production, with sowing activities commencing soon. While most parts of the country are predicted to experience above-normal rainfall, some areas in northwest, east, and northeast India may witness below normal rainfall levels.
Importance of Adequate Monsoon Rainfall
Adequate monsoon rains are essential for agricultural productivity, with kharif sowing accounting for a significant portion of annual crop production. The government’s target of 354.64 million tonnes for food grains production in the 2025-26 crop year reflects the optimistic outlook resulting from the ‘above normal’ monsoon forecast.
Implications for the Economy and Agriculture Growth
The agriculture sector’s gross value added (GVA) is heavily influenced by crop yields and prices fetched by farmers. The ‘above normal’ monsoon forecast is expected to lead to another year of high growth in agriculture, following a successful monsoon season last year. The timely arrival and distribution of monsoon rains play a crucial role in sustaining agricultural activities and ensuring water supply for irrigation and other purposes.
